Pair #6355

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP5-VATO26-MHUB

Valero Texas Open: Will Mark Hubbard finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Mark Hubbard
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 200

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Mark Hubbard finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-MHUB

Valero Texas Open: Will Mark Hubbard finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Mark Hubbard
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 433

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Mark Hubbard finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:09:48Z

Reasoning: Top 10 overall and top 5 in Round 1 are independent — strong Round 1 performance does not guarantee top 10 overall, and top 10 overall does not require a top 5 Round 1.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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