Pair #6351

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-MHUB

Valero Texas Open: Will Mark Hubbard finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Mark Hubbard
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 433

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Mark Hubbard finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-MHUB

Valero Texas Open: Will Mark Hubbard finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Mark Hubbard
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7455

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Mark Hubbard finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:09:48Z

Reasoning: If Hubbard finishes top 10, he necessarily finishes top 20. The reverse does not hold — top 20 could mean finishing 11th–20th, which is not top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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