Pair #6340

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-THOG

Valero Texas Open: Will Tom Hoge finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Tom Hoge
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 299

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tom Hoge finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-VATO26-THOG

Valero Texas Open: Will Tom Hoge finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Tom Hoge
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3334

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tom Hoge finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:09:27Z

Reasoning: Round 1 top 10 is about a single round's standing, not the tournament final result. Finishing top 5 overall does not imply a top 10 Round 1, and a top 10 Round 1 does not imply a top 5 overall finish. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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