Pair #6339

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-THOG

Valero Texas Open: Will Tom Hoge make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Tom Hoge
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 4518

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.4800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tom Hoge has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-THOG

Valero Texas Open: Will Tom Hoge finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Tom Hoge
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 299

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tom Hoge finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:09:27Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in Round 1 does not guarantee making the cut (the cut is determined after Round 2). Making the cut does not imply a top 10 Round 1 finish. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.9900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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