Pair #6338

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VATO26-THOG

Will Tom Hoge lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Tom Hoge
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 47449

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tom Hoge is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-THOG

Valero Texas Open: Will Tom Hoge finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Tom Hoge
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 299

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tom Hoge finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:09:27Z

Reasoning: If Tom Hoge leads after Round 1, he is necessarily in the top 10 (the leader is #1). But finishing top 10 does not imply leading — he could be 2nd through 10th.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.9900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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