Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-THOG
Valero Texas Open: Will Tom Hoge finish top 10 in Round 1?
Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Tom Hoge
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 299
YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Tom Hoge finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP20-VATO26-THOG
Valero Texas Open: Will Tom Hoge finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Tom Hoge
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4052
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.3300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Tom Hoge finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:09:05Z
Reasoning: Finishing top 20 overall and finishing top 10 in Round 1 are independent outcomes. Neither necessitates the other.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.0100
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A