Pair #6335

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-THOG

Valero Texas Open: Will Tom Hoge finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Tom Hoge
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 299

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tom Hoge finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-VATO26-THOG

Will Tom Hoge win the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Tom Hoge
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 84760

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tom Hoge wins the Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:09:05Z

Reasoning: Winning the tournament does not require finishing top 10 in Round 1, and finishing top 10 in Round 1 does not guarantee winning. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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