Pair #6334

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP5-VATO26-RHOE

Valero Texas Open: Will Rico Hoey finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Rico Hoey
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 1111

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rico Hoey finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-VATO26-RHOE

Valero Texas Open: Will Rico Hoey finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Rico Hoey
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 963

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rico Hoey finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:09:05Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 in Round 1 does not guarantee finishing top 5 overall (performance can decline), and finishing top 5 overall does not require having been top 5 after Round 1. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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