Pair #6333

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VATO26-RHOE

Will Rico Hoey lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Rico Hoey
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 11930

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Rico Hoey is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP5-VATO26-RHOE

Valero Texas Open: Will Rico Hoey finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Rico Hoey
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 1111

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Rico Hoey finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:09:05Z

Reasoning: If Rico Hoey leads at the end of Round 1, he is by definition in first place, which means he is in the top 5 after Round 1. The reverse does not hold — top 5 does not mean he leads.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.9900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue