Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1TOP5-VATO26-RHOE
Valero Texas Open: Will Rico Hoey finish top 5 in Round 1?
Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Rico Hoey
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 1111
YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1700
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Rico Hoey finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP10-VATO26-RHOE
Valero Texas Open: Will Rico Hoey finish top 10?
Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Rico Hoey
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 650
YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1900
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Rico Hoey finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:09:05Z
Reasoning: Finishing top 10 overall does not require finishing top 5 in Round 1, and finishing top 5 in Round 1 does not guarantee a top 10 finish overall. No logical implication.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.1000
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A