Pair #631

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR3LEAD-VAC26-RHIS

Will Ryo Hisatsune lead at the end of Round 3 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Ryo Hisatsune
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 312

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ryo Hisatsune is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-VAC26-RHIS

Valspar Championship: Will Ryo Hisatsune finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Ryo Hisatsune
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 13971

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ryo Hisatsune finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:05:08Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 does not require leading after Round 3 (could be outside top 5 after R3 and surge on Sunday), and leading after R3 does not guarantee a top 5 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue