Pair #6301

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-LCLA

Valero Texas Open: Will Luke Clanton make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Luke Clanton
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 4640

YES ask: 0.8000
NO ask: 0.5500
Last: 0.8100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Luke Clanton has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VATO26-LCLA

Will Luke Clanton lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Luke Clanton
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3851

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Luke Clanton is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:08:09Z

Reasoning: Leading after R1 does not guarantee making the cut (a collapse in R2 is possible). Making the cut does not require having led after R1. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.5600
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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