Pair #63

Antecedent (implies)

KXATPMATCH-26MAR16VUKHAR-VUK

Will Aleksandar Vukic win the Vukic vs Harris : Qualification Round 1 match?

Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Aleksandar Vukic
Expiration: 2026-03-16T18:00:00Z
Volume: 400510

YES ask: 0.7300
NO ask: 0.2900
Last: 0.7300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Aleksandar Vukic wins the Vukic vs Harris professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Miami Qualification Round 1 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (implied)

KXATPSETWINNER-26MAR16VUKHAR-2-VUK

Will Aleksandar Vukic win set 2 in the Aleksandar Vukic vs Billy Harris match

Series: KXATPSETWINNER
Entity: Aleksandar Vukic
Expiration: 2026-03-16T18:00:00Z
Volume: 1190

YES ask: 0.6300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.6300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Aleksandar Vukic wins set 2 in the Aleksandar Vukic vs Billy Harris professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Miami Qualification Round 1, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-17T08:00:29Z

Reasoning: Vukic can win the match without winning set 2 (e.g., winning sets 1 and 3 while losing set 2). And winning set 2 does not guarantee winning the match. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.9200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Decision: rejected
Reviewed at: 2026-03-17T10:18:07Z

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