Pair #6293

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-RCAM

Valero Texas Open: Will Rafael Campos make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Rafael Campos
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 2171

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Rafael Campos has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VATO26-RCAM

Will Rafael Campos lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Rafael Campos
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 17486

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Rafael Campos is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:08:09Z

Reasoning: Leading after R1 does not guarantee making the cut (a player could collapse in R2). Making the cut does not require having led after R1. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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