Pair #6292

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VATO26-RCAM

Will Rafael Campos lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Rafael Campos
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 17486

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Rafael Campos is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-RCAM

Valero Texas Open: Will Rafael Campos finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Rafael Campos
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1270

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Rafael Campos finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:08:09Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 does not require leading after R1, and leading after R1 does not guarantee a top 10 finish. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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