Pair #628

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-RHIS

Valspar Championship: Will Ryo Hisatsune make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Ryo Hisatsune
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 473

YES ask: 0.8200
NO ask: 0.2700
Last: 0.7600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ryo Hisatsune makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VAC26-RHIS

Will Ryo Hisatsune lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Ryo Hisatsune
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 90725

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ryo Hisatsune is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:05:08Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee making the cut (a player could collapse in Round 2 and miss the cut), and making the cut does not require leading after Round 1.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.3000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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