Pair #6266

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-MTHO

Valero Texas Open: Will Michael Thorbjornsen make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Michael Thorbjornsen
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 2584

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Michael Thorbjornsen has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP5-VATO26-MTHO

Valero Texas Open: Will Michael Thorbjornsen finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Michael Thorbjornsen
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 1644

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Michael Thorbjornsen finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:07:34Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 in Round 1 does not guarantee making the cut (a player could collapse in Round 2), and making the cut does not require a top 5 Round 1 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.9900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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