Pair #6264

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-MTHO

Valero Texas Open: Will Michael Thorbjornsen finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Michael Thorbjornsen
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 1540

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Michael Thorbjornsen finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-VATO26-MTHO

Valero Texas Open: Will Michael Thorbjornsen finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Michael Thorbjornsen
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2909

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Michael Thorbjornsen finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:07:17Z

Reasoning: Round 1 top-10 and final tournament top-5 are independent — neither implies the other. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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