Pair #6263

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-MTHO

Valero Texas Open: Will Michael Thorbjornsen make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Michael Thorbjornsen
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 2584

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Michael Thorbjornsen has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-MTHO

Valero Texas Open: Will Michael Thorbjornsen finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Michael Thorbjornsen
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 1540

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Michael Thorbjornsen finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:07:17Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in Round 1 does not guarantee making the cut (the cut is determined after Round 2), and making the cut does not require a top-10 Round 1 finish. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.9900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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