Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1TOP5-VATO26-MTHO
Valero Texas Open: Will Michael Thorbjornsen finish top 5 in Round 1?
Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Michael Thorbjornsen
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 1644
YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Michael Thorbjornsen finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-MTHO
Valero Texas Open: Will Michael Thorbjornsen finish top 10 in Round 1?
Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Michael Thorbjornsen
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 1540
YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Michael Thorbjornsen finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:07:17Z
Reasoning: If Thorbjornsen finishes top 5 in Round 1, he necessarily finishes top 10 in Round 1 (top 5 is a subset of top 10). The reverse does not hold — top 10 does not imply top 5.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.9900
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A