Pair #6261

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VATO26-MTHO

Will Michael Thorbjornsen lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Michael Thorbjornsen
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 133075

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Michael Thorbjornsen is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-MTHO

Valero Texas Open: Will Michael Thorbjornsen finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Michael Thorbjornsen
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 1540

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Michael Thorbjornsen finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:07:17Z

Reasoning: If Thorbjornsen leads after Round 1, he is by definition in the top position, which is within the top 10. However, finishing top 10 in Round 1 does not imply leading. So the lead implies top 10, but not vice versa.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.9900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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