Pair #626

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VAC26-RHIS

Will Ryo Hisatsune lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Ryo Hisatsune
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 90725

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0300

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Rules

If Ryo Hisatsune is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-VAC26-RHIS

Will Ryo Hisatsune win the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Ryo Hisatsune
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 808242

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ryo Hisatsune wins the Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:05:08Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee winning (many R1 leaders do not win), and winning does not require having led after Round 1.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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