Pair #6255

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-MTHO

Valero Texas Open: Will Michael Thorbjornsen finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Michael Thorbjornsen
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 1540

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Michael Thorbjornsen finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-VATO26-MTHO

Will Michael Thorbjornsen win the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Michael Thorbjornsen
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 404791

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Michael Thorbjornsen wins the Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:07:17Z

Reasoning: Winning the overall tournament does not require finishing top 10 in Round 1 — a player can win after a poor first round. And finishing top 10 in Round 1 does not imply winning the tournament. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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