Pair #6253

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-MTHO

Valero Texas Open: Will Michael Thorbjornsen make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Michael Thorbjornsen
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 2584

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Michael Thorbjornsen has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMASTERS-26-MTHO

Michael Thorbjornsen to compete in The Masters in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMASTERS
Entity: Michael Thorbjornsen
Expiration: 2026-04-13T14:00:00Z
Volume: 27509

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Michael Thorbjornsen competes in The Masters in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:06:58Z

Reasoning: Competing in The Masters does not require making the cut at Valero (Masters qualification has multiple pathways unrelated to Valero cut). Making the cut at Valero does not guarantee Masters entry. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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