Pair #6252

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMASTERS-26-MTHO

Michael Thorbjornsen to compete in The Masters in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMASTERS
Entity: Michael Thorbjornsen
Expiration: 2026-04-13T14:00:00Z
Volume: 27509

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Michael Thorbjornsen competes in The Masters in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP5-VATO26-MTHO

Valero Texas Open: Will Michael Thorbjornsen finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Michael Thorbjornsen
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 1644

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Michael Thorbjornsen finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:06:58Z

Reasoning: Competing in The Masters does not require finishing top 5 in R1 of Valero, and finishing top 5 in R1 of Valero does not guarantee Masters entry. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.9900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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