Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1TOP5-VATO26-RHIS
Valero Texas Open: Will Ryo Hisatsune finish top 5 in Round 1?
Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Ryo Hisatsune
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 329
YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1400
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Ryo Hisatsune finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP5-VATO26-RHIS
Valero Texas Open: Will Ryo Hisatsune finish top 5?
Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Ryo Hisatsune
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 22335
YES ask: 0.5700
NO ask: 0.4500
Last: 0.5700
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Ryo Hisatsune finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:06:58Z
Reasoning: Being top 5 after Round 1 does not guarantee finishing top 5 in the tournament (performance can change over 4 rounds). Finishing top 5 in the tournament does not require being top 5 after Round 1. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.5700
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A