Pair #6246

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP5-VATO26-RHIS

Valero Texas Open: Will Ryo Hisatsune finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Ryo Hisatsune
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 329

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ryo Hisatsune finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-RHIS

Valero Texas Open: Will Ryo Hisatsune finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Ryo Hisatsune
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 393

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ryo Hisatsune finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:06:58Z

Reasoning: If Hisatsune finishes top 5 in Round 1, he necessarily also finishes top 10 in Round 1 (top 5 is a subset of top 10). The reverse does not hold — top 10 does not imply top 5.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.9900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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