Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1TOP5-VATO26-RHIS
Valero Texas Open: Will Ryo Hisatsune finish top 5 in Round 1?
Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Ryo Hisatsune
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 329
YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1400
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Ryo Hisatsune finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-RHIS
Valero Texas Open: Will Ryo Hisatsune finish top 10 in Round 1?
Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Ryo Hisatsune
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 393
YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Ryo Hisatsune finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:06:58Z
Reasoning: If Hisatsune finishes top 5 in Round 1, he necessarily also finishes top 10 in Round 1 (top 5 is a subset of top 10). The reverse does not hold — top 10 does not imply top 5.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.9900
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A