Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR2LEAD-VATO26-RHIS
Will Ryo Hisatsune lead at the end of Round 2 in the Valero Texas Open?
Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Ryo Hisatsune
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 20650
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Ryo Hisatsune is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-RHIS
Valero Texas Open: Will Ryo Hisatsune make the cut?
Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Ryo Hisatsune
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 1578
YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9900
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Ryo Hisatsune has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:06:58Z
Reasoning: If Hisatsune leads after Round 2, he is at the cut line or better and therefore must have made the cut. The cut is determined after Round 2, and the leader after Round 2 necessarily makes the cut. The reverse does not hold — making the cut does not imply leading after Round 2.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$2.0000
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A