Pair #6241

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-RHIS

Valero Texas Open: Will Ryo Hisatsune finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Ryo Hisatsune
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 393

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ryo Hisatsune finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR2LEAD-VATO26-RHIS

Will Ryo Hisatsune lead at the end of Round 2 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Ryo Hisatsune
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 20650

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ryo Hisatsune is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:06:38Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 2 does not require a top 10 Round 1 finish (a player could shoot a low Round 2 from outside top 10 to take the lead), and a top 10 Round 1 finish does not guarantee leading after Round 2. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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