Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1TOP5-VATO26-RHIS
Valero Texas Open: Will Ryo Hisatsune finish top 5 in Round 1?
Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Ryo Hisatsune
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 329
YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1400
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Ryo Hisatsune finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP20-VATO26-RHIS
Valero Texas Open: Will Ryo Hisatsune finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Ryo Hisatsune
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 32540
YES ask: 0.8800
NO ask: 0.1600
Last: 0.8900
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Ryo Hisatsune finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:06:38Z
Reasoning: A top 5 Round 1 finish does not guarantee a top 20 tournament finish, and a top 20 tournament finish does not require a top 5 Round 1. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.8800
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A