Pair #623

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-RHIS

Valspar Championship: Will Ryo Hisatsune finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Ryo Hisatsune
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 37359

YES ask: 0.4300
NO ask: 0.6100
Last: 0.4400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ryo Hisatsune finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-RHIS

Valspar Championship: Will Ryo Hisatsune make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Ryo Hisatsune
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 473

YES ask: 0.8200
NO ask: 0.2700
Last: 0.7600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ryo Hisatsune makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:04:49Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 20 requires having made the cut. Making the cut does not imply finishing top 20.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.4300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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