Pair #6222

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP5-VATO26-RFOW

Valero Texas Open: Will Rickie Fowler finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Rickie Fowler
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 650

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.4100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rickie Fowler finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-VATO26-RFOW

Will Rickie Fowler win the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Rickie Fowler
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 287851

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rickie Fowler wins the Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:06:17Z

Reasoning: Winning the Valero Texas Open does not require finishing top 5 in Round 1 (a player could start poorly and come back). And finishing top 5 in Round 1 does not imply winning the tournament. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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