Pair #620

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-VAC26-RHIS

Valspar Championship: Will Ryo Hisatsune finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Ryo Hisatsune
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 13971

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ryo Hisatsune finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-RHIS

Valspar Championship: Will Ryo Hisatsune finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Ryo Hisatsune
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 37359

YES ask: 0.4300
NO ask: 0.6100
Last: 0.4400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ryo Hisatsune finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:04:49Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 necessarily means finishing top 20 as well. However, finishing top 20 does not imply finishing top 5.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.4300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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