Antecedent (if this happens)
KXATPMATCH-26APR03ETCPAU-PAU
Will Tommy Paul win the Etcheverry vs Paul : Quarterfinal match?
Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Tommy Paul
Expiration: 2026-04-03T20:00:00Z
Volume: 6731
YES ask: 0.6800
NO ask: 0.3400
Last: 0.6700
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Tommy Paul wins the Etcheverry vs Paul professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Houston Quarterfinal after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXFOMEN-26-PAU
Will Tommy Paul win the French Open?
Series: KXFOMEN
Entity: Tommy Paul
Expiration: 2026-06-10T17:00:00Z
Volume: 412288
YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Tommy Paul wins the 2026 Men's French Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:05:42Z
Reasoning: Winning the French Open does not require winning the Houston ATP Quarterfinal, and winning the Houston Quarterfinal does not imply winning the French Open. These are independent events.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$0.3600
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A