Pair #6196

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATPGRANDSLAM-26-BSHE

Will Ben Shelton win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXATPGRANDSLAM
Entity: Ben Shelton
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 8926

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ben Shelton wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPMATCH-26APR03SHETIR-SHE

Will Ben Shelton win the Shelton vs Tirante : Quarterfinal match?

Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Ben Shelton
Expiration: 2026-04-03T20:00:00Z
Volume: 20021

YES ask: 0.6800
NO ask: 0.3300
Last: 0.6800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ben Shelton wins the Shelton vs Tirante professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Houston Quarterfinal after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:05:42Z

Reasoning: Winning a Grand Slam in 2026 does not require winning the Houston Quarterfinal match, and winning the Houston Quarterfinal does not imply winning a Grand Slam. These are completely independent events.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -57.87% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.6600
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -62.15% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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