Pair #6194

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-TKIM

Valero Texas Open: Will Tom Kim make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Tom Kim
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 285

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tom Kim has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VATO26-TKIM

Will Tom Kim lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Tom Kim
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 39633

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tom Kim is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:05:42Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee making the cut (a player could lead R1 but play poorly in R2 and miss the cut). Making the cut does not require leading after R1. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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