Pair #6183

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR2LEAD-VATO26-WZAL

Will Will Zalatoris lead at the end of Round 2 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Will Zalatoris
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 13588

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Will Zalatoris is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-WZAL

Valero Texas Open: Will Will Zalatoris make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Will Zalatoris
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 772

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Will Zalatoris has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:05:22Z

Reasoning: If Zalatoris leads after Round 2, he has completed Round 2 and is at the top of the leaderboard, which means he has made the cut (or the cut hasn't been made yet, but being the leader after R2 means he survives the cut). The cut is made after Round 2, so leading after Round 2 logically means he made the cut. The reverse does not hold: making the cut does not imply leading after Round 2.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $2.0000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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