Pair #6165

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-WZAL

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Will Zalatoris
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 9096

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

Rules

If Will Zalatoris wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-VATO26-WZAL

Valero Texas Open: Will Will Zalatoris finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Will Zalatoris
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1747

YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Will Zalatoris finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:04:44Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 and finishing top 5 at the Valero Texas Open are independent events at different tournaments. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -13.67% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0900
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -17.95% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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