Pair #6162

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-WZAL

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Will Zalatoris
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 9096

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Will Zalatoris wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-WZAL

Valero Texas Open: Will Will Zalatoris finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Will Zalatoris
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 5590

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Will Zalatoris finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:04:44Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 and finishing top 10 at the Valero Texas Open are independent events. The Valero is not a major, so neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -12.36% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0800
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -16.64% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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