Pair #616

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-ECOL

Valspar Championship: Will Eric Cole make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Eric Cole
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 617

YES ask: 0.5700
NO ask: 0.5500
Last: 0.6000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Eric Cole makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VAC26-ECOL

Will Eric Cole lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Eric Cole
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3967

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Eric Cole is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:04:49Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee making the cut (a player could withdraw or be disqualified), and making the cut does not require having led after Round 1. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.5600
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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