Pair #6148

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-MPEN

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 800

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

Rules

If Marco Penge wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-VATO26-MPEN

Valero Texas Open: Will Marco Penge finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1796

YES ask: 0.2100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Marco Penge finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:04:30Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 and finishing top 5 at the Valero Texas Open are independent events. The Valero Texas Open is not a major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -27.87% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2100
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -32.15% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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