Pair #6145

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VATO26-NTAY

Will Nick Taylor lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Nick Taylor
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 22692

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Nick Taylor is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-VATO26-NTAY

Valero Texas Open: Will Nick Taylor finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Nick Taylor
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 359

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Nick Taylor finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:04:10Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee a top-5 finish, and finishing top 5 does not require leading after Round 1. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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