Pair #6144

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-NTAY

Valero Texas Open: Will Nick Taylor make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Nick Taylor
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 492

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.1500
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Nick Taylor has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VATO26-NTAY

Will Nick Taylor lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Nick Taylor
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 22692

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Nick Taylor is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:04:10Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not logically guarantee making the cut (a player could still miss the cut after Round 2). Making the cut does not imply leading after Round 1. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.1600
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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