Pair #614

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-ECOL

Valspar Championship: Will Eric Cole finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Eric Cole
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4212

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Eric Cole finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-ECOL

Valspar Championship: Will Eric Cole make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Eric Cole
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 617

YES ask: 0.5700
NO ask: 0.5500
Last: 0.6000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Eric Cole makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:04:49Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 20 in a tournament requires having made the cut — you cannot finish in the top 20 overall without surviving the cut. Making the cut does not imply finishing top 20.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.5700
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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