Pair #6138

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-NTAY

Valero Texas Open: Will Nick Taylor finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Nick Taylor
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1003

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Nick Taylor finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-NTAY

Valero Texas Open: Will Nick Taylor finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Nick Taylor
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3924

YES ask: 0.1300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Nick Taylor finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:04:10Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 necessarily means finishing top 20. The reverse does not hold — finishing top 20 does not guarantee top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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