Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1TOP5-VATO26-ANOV
Valero Texas Open: Will Andrew Novak finish top 5 in Round 1?
Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Andrew Novak
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 654
YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1400
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Andrew Novak finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP5-VATO26-ANOV
Valero Texas Open: Will Andrew Novak finish top 5?
Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Andrew Novak
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 651
YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1600
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Andrew Novak finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:03:52Z
Reasoning: Finishing top 5 in Round 1 and finishing top 5 overall are independent. A player can be top 5 after R1 but fall outside top 5 overall, and vice versa.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.0600
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A