Pair #613

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-VAC26-ECOL

Will Eric Cole win the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Eric Cole
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 17570

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Eric Cole wins the Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-ECOL

Valspar Championship: Will Eric Cole finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Eric Cole
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4212

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Eric Cole finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:04:49Z

Reasoning: Winning the tournament means finishing 1st, which is inside the top 20. However, finishing top 20 does not imply winning. So the win implies top 20, not the other way around.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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