Pair #6129

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-ANOV

Valero Texas Open: Will Andrew Novak make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Andrew Novak
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 242

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Andrew Novak has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP5-VATO26-ANOV

Valero Texas Open: Will Andrew Novak finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Andrew Novak
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 654

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Andrew Novak finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:03:52Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 in Round 1 does not guarantee making the cut (a player could have a bad Round 2). Making the cut does not require being top 5 in R1.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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