Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1TOP5-VATO26-ANOV
Valero Texas Open: Will Andrew Novak finish top 5 in Round 1?
Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Andrew Novak
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 654
YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1400
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Andrew Novak finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP10-VATO26-ANOV
Valero Texas Open: Will Andrew Novak finish top 10?
Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Andrew Novak
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2318
YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.4400
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Andrew Novak finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:03:52Z
Reasoning: Finishing top 10 overall and finishing top 5 in Round 1 are independent. Neither logically necessitates the other.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.1100
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A