Pair #6124

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-ANOV

Valero Texas Open: Will Andrew Novak finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Andrew Novak
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 9368

YES ask: 0.2000
NO ask: 0.8300
Last: 0.1100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Andrew Novak finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-ANOV

Valero Texas Open: Will Andrew Novak make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Andrew Novak
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 242

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Andrew Novak has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:03:52Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 20 in the tournament requires having made the cut. The reverse does not hold — making the cut does not guarantee a top 20 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.8300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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